Universal insurance payment is approaching a peak, January robbery the real culprit – Sohu securitie 湖南都市职业学院

Universal insurance against the peak is approaching, A shares "one month robbery" real culprit? – Sohu securities January "big market", private, public offering and individual investors are deeply set. Who led the wave? In addition to the end of last year, the face of such a big wave of venture capital, seems to be unable to find someone else. In the fuse of the disaster, finally notes throughout the chaos, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has always been, these are not fully explain a problem — a 20 year single month the related stock movements or the January, the real selling pressure come from? Private placement, public offering, and individual investors are all hanged at the high point, who escaped? At the end of last year, it was possible to answer all the risks. In the first quarter, the peak of cashing peak was held in 2016 at the National Insurance Regulatory company meeting in January 25th, and the speech of chairman Xiang Junbo of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission, which lasted for more than 20 thousand years, entered the market. Mentioned in the "industry (insurance) is facing the concentrated payment and abnormal surrender pressure is bigger", alluding to a trace of "venture capital fled" clues. It is understood that the pressure maturities of insurance industry has been in existence since 2013. Ten years ago in 2002, the insurance company sold a large number of 10 year bonus products; in the last round of A shares bull market during 2007, the insurance company and a large number of sales of 5 years of participating insurance products and investment insurance products. These products enter centralized payment before and after 2013. But that’s not the biggest pressure. Beginning in 2013, the insurance companies began to sell high priced, short-term universal insurance products, and caused most of the insurance companies to follow the trend of the wind. Since 2013 the industry into full payment and surrender of the peak, the amount involved is rising. Last year the industry full payment and surrender the amount of nearly trillion yuan, still did not get to the top. 2016 will still run at a high level, and more than trillion mark, reaching the highest peak in recent years, while the annual payment of Hong Chaozhong, the first quarter is the peak in the peak. From the market situation, universal insurance products preset 7% or even higher investment income, some products as long as a full year to surrender, the past two years have been popular when universal insurance products, look at the various large and medium-sized life insurance company’s premium scale explosive growth is remarkable. And the payment period of these universal insurance products is just beginning this year. According to a life insurance company director said, a Southern home has been among the billions of premium Club life insurance company an annuity insurance became the company’s best-selling products in 2014, the annual premium income reached 15 billion yuan, after two years out of the profit, and these customers will choose to surrender cash income in 2016. The director said: "the surrender of high current prices is the insurance company in the design of the product has been actuarial, in product design, through the collection of fees to guide consumers at a specific time to surrender. Some marketing personnel in the sales process will directly tell policyholders when to surrender the most cost-effective. And in the first quarter of this year, that’s exactly what it is.

万能险兑付洪峰将至,A股“一月劫”真正元凶?-搜狐证券  1月的“大行情”中,私募、公募以及个人投资者全都遭到深套。谁主导了这波设套行情?能掀起如此大波澜的,除了去年年底刷脸的险资,似乎也找不到别人了。   始于熔断之祸,终于票据之乱,贯穿始终的人民币汇率波动,这些都无法完全解释一个问题――创下20年单月最 相关公司股票走势 大跌幅的一月,真正的抛压从何而来?私募、公募、个人投资者全都被“吊死”在高点,逃出来的人又是谁?   去年年底搅动风云的万能险,有可能就是解答。   一季度,“兑付高峰中的高峰”   1月25日召开的2016年全国保险监管公司会议上,长达2万多字的保监会主席项俊波的讲话稿流入市场。其中提到“行业(保险业)面临的集中给付和非正常退保的压力较大”,影射出了一丝“险资出逃”的线索。   据了解,保险业面临的满期给付压力自2013年以后就一直存在。十年前的2002年,保险公司大量销售了10年期的分红产品;在2007年上一轮A股大牛市期间,保险公司又大量销售5年期的分红险产品以及投连险产品。这些产品在2013年前后进入集中兑付。   但这还不是最大的压力。从2013年开始,市场上又有保险公司开始销售高现价更短期的万能险产品,并引发市场上绝大部分保险公司仿效成风。   自2013年行业进入满期给付及退保高峰以来,所涉金额不断攀升。去年行业满期给付及退保金额已经接近万亿元,仍没有到顶。2016年仍会在高位运行,且超过万亿大关,达到近几年来的最高峰,而在全年给付洪潮中,一季度又是高峰中的高峰。   从市面上的情况来看,万能险产品预设了7%甚至更高的投资收益,有的产品只要满一年就可以退保,过去两年一直是万能险产品大行其道的时候,看看各家大中小寿险公司的保费规模呈现爆炸式增长就可见一斑。而这些万能险产品的兑付期恰恰是从今年开始。   据一位寿险公司总监透露,南方某家已经跻身于千亿保费俱乐部的寿险公司一款年金保险在2014年时成为该公司最畅销的产品,全年保费收入达到150亿元,两年之后取出即有盈利,而这些客户大都会在2016年选择退保兑现收益。   这位总监表示:“高现价产品的退保都是保险公司在设计产品时就已经精算过的,在产品设计中,会通过费用的收取来引导消费者在特定的时间来进行退保。有的营销人员在销售过程中就会直接告诉投保人在何时退保最划算。而今年一季度恰恰就是那个最划算的时间。”   险资也是“滑头”?   1月的行情与兑付高峰重合时,险资会怎么做?   上海一家保险资管负责人表示:“波段式操作、脉冲式行情,一直是我们近两年的主题投资策略。而今年一季度,保险行业面临超过万亿的满期兑付和退保压力,另外一些激进中小保险公司的偿付压力更大。”   此番话隐隐表明,从今年初开始,险资很可能会流出股市,降低权益仓位。   险资不是偏爱长期投资么?为何会甘当股市的“滑头”?我们不仅对此产生疑问。   去年年底,安邦、前海人寿等险资频频举牌上市公司,其中生命人寿甚至四度举牌浦发银行。按照险企财务报表处理方式,持股超过该公司股本20%以上,已可以被列入“长期投资”范畴。   举牌潮后,老虎财经曾分析指出,涉及险资举牌的个股,其平均股息率接近2%,远高于上证指数不到1%的平均股息率。这一投资风格也被认为是长期投资的特征。   然而这些充其量只是表象,险资的操作到底是贪长还是偏短,可能只有资管君们自己知道。   有分析人士指出,比起打着“明牌”投资权益市场的险资,更多的险资与基金操作并无二致。根据万能险的特点,投资者可以选择在期满时赎回保险(消费类保险不存在赎回一说),而且赎回时点非常灵活;此外,国内的许多万能险存在最低约定收益条款,这要求万能险资金在追求收益的同时,更需兼顾资产价值的回撤,灵活操作。   比如,上文中已经提到,2013年时,险资涉足权益市场的代表是“投资连结保险”。当年6月前后,股市经历了难得一见的大起大落,作为许多权益投资标杆的沪深300指数单月跌幅达到15%,相比之下,投连险的普遍亏损仅为5~7%左右,远低于同期沪深300回撤。   需要指出的是,投资连结险的权益类持仓约在70%,甚至比当时股基持仓最低要求60%的比例还要高,控制回撤在其中扮演的角色可见一斑。   几乎空仓   公开信息显示,不少险企的权益类投资仓位已下调,大型公司在10%左右,部分中小公司甚至在2%、3%左右。   中国太保相关人士表示,股票配置比例不到5%,权益类资产加总比例也基本维持在行业平均水平,不会激进投资,但会关注阶段性机会。   新华保险相关人士则表示,暂时不会出于其他大类资产的配置压力而被动增加权益类投资,具体操作将根据市场情况进行决策。   一位险资投资总监表示:“我们公司的权益类投资已非常低,可以说是底仓。本周大跌没有加仓,一是考虑到市场整体处于下行趋势,二是考虑到春节将至,持股过节的不确定性风险较大。”   “大公司可能面临协议存款、非标信托产品到期带来的资产配置切换压力,我们小公司不存在这种问题。另外,在监管层加强资产负债风险管控的背景下,险资激进举牌上市公司之风可能会有所收敛。”   某中型保险公司投资总监表示:“保险资金投资的第一要务是安全性,我也是右侧交易爱好者,我们公司一直坚持‘顺势而为’的投资策略,实行中位数法则,势头起来了加一点,势头下去了,再减一点,保持仓位水平的动态平衡。相关的主题文章: