Category Archives: Software

Goldman HSBC buy rating target price of 77 yuan 山河社稷图有什么用

Goldman: HSBC buy rating target price of 77 yuan a thousand thousand shares hot column capital flows on stock diagnosis the latest rating simulated trading client sina finance App: Live on-line blogger to tutor Hong Kong level2 market through the mechanism of cards Goldman report, HSBC (00005.HK) next week announced the results, the basic material of the fourth quarter of last year pre tax profits rose by 17% to $3 billion 350 million, lower than market expectations of 7%. In addition to the implementation of focusing on ten strategic initiatives, while HSBC is expected to focus more fine in three areas, including risk, commodity markets of Asia’s profitability and dividend sustainability. Goldman, HSBC would reduce market expectations of commodity risk, expected in the fourth quarter of last year the overall provision for the amount of $1 billion, compared to the first three quarters of last year the average quarterly $700 million. As for Asia on basic earnings HSBC’s contribution to the first three quarters of last year reached 62%, but the economic slowdown in the market intensified, the more attention for the sustainability of high profitability, and not expected to HSBC Bank (03328.HK) holding any change. At the same time, we hope that the profitability of the Asian market is only a moderate impact, rather than because the global environment deterioration, so that provision has a significant impact on the rise. In addition, the bank believes that the HSBC payout ability will be dropped due to the basic earnings trend, especially in asia. Goldman HSBC for rating to "buy", target price of 77 yuan. (both) go into Sina Finance shares

高盛:给予汇控买入评级 目标价77元 热点栏目 资金流向 千股千评 个股诊断 最新评级 模拟交易 客户端 新浪财经App:直播上线 博主一对一指导 港股level2行情 翻看机构底牌   高盛报告指,汇控(00005.HK)下星期公布去年业绩,料去年第四季基本税前盈利按年升17%至33.5亿美元,低於市场预期7%。除了集中於十个战略行动的实施外,同时预计汇控在三个领域方面有更精细的焦点,包括大宗商品的风险、亚洲市场的盈利能力及股息可持续性。   高盛指,市场预期汇控会减少大宗商品方面的风险,料去年第四季整体拨备金额为10亿美元,对比去年首三季平均每季的7亿美元。至於亚洲地区对汇控基本盈利的贡献於去年首三季达到62%,惟该市场的经济增速放缓情况加剧,该行较关注高盈利能力的可持续性,且不期望汇控於交行(03328.HK)的持股有任何改变。同时希望亚洲市场的盈利能力只有温和影响,而非因环球环境恶化,令拨备上升而有重大影响。   另外,该行认为汇控派息能力会因基本盈利的走势而回落,特别是在亚洲方面。高盛对汇控的评级为‘买入’,目标价77元。(双双) 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

达到了39亿元 神机鬼藏

Gu Shu took over as president of ICBC is known as the "crisis master" [Abstract]49 year old Gu Shu became the Industrial Bank, the incumbent president of the state-owned banks in the youngest one. The line of a business department in charge of the evaluation of Gu Shu crisis master, senior accounting expert". "Finance and economics" reporter Zhang Weiwen after nearly four months, the world’s largest commercial bank ICBC president candidate finalized. "Finance and economics" reporter was informed that the main person in charge of ICBC has received notice of the meeting, at nine a.m. on September 12th, the relevant departments of the organization responsible for the meeting held in ICBC, announced that vice president of ICBC Gu Shu was promoted to industrial and Commercial Bank of China governor. "Finance and economics" in this regard to the relevant departments of the industry for confirmation, the other side did not deny. After the announcement of the Organization Department, after the completion of the relevant procedures, Gu Shu will formally serve as president of icbc. In May 16th this year, the ICBC held above the middle management staff of the general assembly, the leadership of the Central Organization Department announced that Yi will be full of ICBC chairman, party secretary, no longer serve as chairman of ICBC, former chairman, 63 year old Jiang Jianqing due to the last age retired, no longer serve as chairman of icbc. After the chairman of the board has completed the handover, the market has been watching the replacement of the president of the universe. Previously, ICBC insiders told the "financial" reporters, the morning of August 23rd, the Central Organization Department of ICBC head office to convene a meeting of president candidates, and the president and the vice chairman, deputy secretary of the Party Committee Office of democratic recommendation, mainly for leadership and the provincial governor, the total line department responsible for the bearer the vote, democratic elections may be the result of a valley Shu, but eventually to the Central Organization Department announced. According to the official website of the ICBC, at present, Qian Wen is the supervisor, and the four vice presidents are Zhang Hongli, Gu Shu, Wang Jingdong and Hu Hao, respectively. The 49 year old Gu Shu graduated from Shanghai Jiao Tong University in August 1990, bachelor’s degree; graduated from Dongbei University of Finance and Economics in March 1995, obtained a master’s degree in management; March 1998 graduated from the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, a PhD in management science; senior accountant, a lot of professional papers and books. As the president of ICBC, he became the youngest member of the current governor of state-owned banks. The line of a business department in charge of the evaluation of Gu Shu crisis master, senior accounting expert". From the resume can be seen, the valley Shu is also an old pedestrian, his PhD in management from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics in March 1998 after graduating from ICBC work accounting department; from February 2000 to September 2003 served as deputy director of ICBC, director of the Department of accounting; from September 2003 to December 2004 served as deputy general manager of ICBC accounting department; December 2004 to July 2006. Plan for financial department deputy general manager; July 2006 to July 2008 served as general manager of financial department; from July 2008 to November 2010 served as secretary of the board of directors of the Industrial Commercial Bank of China Ltd, general manager of strategic management and investor relations department; November 2010 ICBC co..

谷澍接任工商银行行长 被誉为“解决危机的高手” [摘要]49岁的谷澍就任工行行长,成为目前国有银行现任行长中最年轻的一位。工行某业务部门负责人评价谷澍为“解决危机的高手,资深的财会专家”。《财经》记者 张威 文时隔近四个月,全球最大商业银行中国工商银行行长人选最终敲定。《财经》记者独家获悉,工行中高层主要负责人已经接到会议通知,9月12日上午九点,上级组织部门有关负责人在工行召开会议,宣布工商银行副行长谷澍升任工商银行行长。《财经》就此向工行有关部门求证,对方未否认。在组织部门宣布后,走完后序有关程序,谷澍将正式出任工行行长。今年5月16日,中国工商银行召开中层以上管理人员大会,中组部领导宣布易会满任中国工商银行董事长、党委书记,不再担任中国工商银行行长职务,前董事长、63岁的姜建清因到了卸任的最后年龄,不再担任工行董事长。董事长完成交接后,市场对宇宙大行行长的接替人选一直都在观望。此前,有工行内部人士告诉《财经》记者,8月23日上午中组部到工行总行召开会议,考察行长之职的人选,并对行长兼副董事长、党委副书记一职进行民主推荐,主要是行领导以及各省行长、总行部室负责人进行无记名投票,民主选举的结果可能是谷澍,但是最终还是要等中组部宣布。根据工行官网,目前钱文挥为监事长,四位副行长分别为张红力、谷澍、王敬东和胡浩,而谷澍接任工行行长也印证了工行干部多由内部产生这一说法。现年49岁的谷澍1990年8月毕业于上海交通大学,取得工学学士学位;1995年3月毕业于东北财经大学,取得管理学硕士学位;1998年3月毕业于上海财经大学,取得管理学博士学位;高级会计师,出过不少专业论文和著作。谷澍就任工行行长,成为目前国有银行现任行长中最年轻的一位。工行某业务部门负责人评价谷澍为“解决危机的高手,资深的财会专家”。从简历可以看出,谷澍也是一位老工行人,他1998年3月从上海财经大学管理学博士学位毕业后到工行会计结算部工作;2000年2月至2003年9月历任工行会计结算部副处长、处长;2003年9月至2004年12月任工行会计结算部副总经理;2004年12月至2006年7月任工行计划财务部副总经理;2006年7月至2008年7月任财务会计部总经理;2008年7月至2010年11月任中国工商银行股份有限公司董事会秘书,战略管理与投资者关系部总经理;2010年11月任中国工商银行股份有限公司山东省分行行长、党委书记。2013年10月起任中国工商银行股份有限公司副行长。8月末,中国工商银行公布了2016年上半年,上半年工商银行实现拨备前利润2395亿元,比上年同期增长1.2%,在计提444亿元拨备后,实现净利润1507亿元,比上年同期增长0.8%。在资产质量方面,针对经济下行压力下融资风险多点多发态势,工商银行将稳定信贷资产质量作为重中之重,全面落实质量管理责任机制,加紧建立适应新常态的信贷体制机制、专家队伍和信贷文化。综合运用多种手段提高不良贷款的实质性风险化解效果和处置回收率,上半年共清收处置不良贷款1132亿元,比上年同期多处置397亿元。截至上半年末,工商银行不良贷款率为1.55%,较年初上升0.05个百分点,较一季度末下降0.11个百分点,不良贷款余额较一季度减少84亿元。在工行上半年业绩新闻发布会上,董事长易会满回答多个问题之后,点名让谷澍回答了工行上半年收费及佣金收入情况。今年上半年工商银行的收费及佣金收入同比增长6%,在营业收入当中的占比提升了3.4个百分点。谷澍表示,今年上半年我们的中间业务收入取得了比较平稳的增长,分析主要有以下三个原因:第一个原因,我们充分利用了工商银行丰富的客户资源和我们的渠道资源,抓住了市场机会,不断调整我们的营销策略。在代销产品领域,我们今年上半年取得了很好的成绩。今年由于资本市场和去年相比不同,所以上半年基金的代销卖的不是特别好,我们及时根据市场的变化调整我们的营销策略,上半年在一些其他的产品方面取得了很好的成绩。比如说在代销个人保险产品方面,上半年代理个人保险业务收入增长2.4倍,今年代销个人贵金属收入同比增长1.2倍,这样我们整体的代销个人产品这个领域,中间业务的收入比去年增长了百分之九点几,这是对我们整个中间业务收入贡献很大的方面。第二个原因,这两年我们做了很多的减费让利。但另一方面我们通过改进服务,不断的增大我们的客户基础,以量补价也使中间业务收入能够维持一个比较稳定的增长。比如说今年上半年,我们对我们的托管系统进行了优化,通过优化增强了风险控制能力,然后我们可以给十几家分行扩大它的托管授权,这十几家分行为当地的客户提供托管服务。这样使我们今年上半年比去年同期整个托管收入同比增长了45%,达到了39亿元。第三个原因,我们通过不断增加新的产品,拓展新的服务领域,来增加新的中间业务盈利的增长点。比如说我们今年上半年,我们把“一带一路”沿线80多个国家的货币都搬上了我们的网上银行,可以来做外币买卖,这样就使我们上半年整个代客外汇买卖收入也有了不小的增长。“所以从今年上半年的情况看,哪怕再往前看,我们觉得只要不断改进我们的服务,不断的创新,工商银行中间业务收入应该是可持续发展的。”谷澍说。更多精彩内容欢迎搜索关注微信公众号:腾讯财经(financeapp)。相关的主题文章:

货币政策维持稳健的基调没有变 重庆电讯职业学院

The long and short term debt intertwined trend is difficult to have a chance of sina fund exposure table: the letter Phi lag of false propaganda, long-term performance is lower than similar products, to buy the fund by the pit how to do? Click on [I want to complain], Sina help you expose them! Near the end of the season, since the funds rate rise will further reduce the configuration requirements in mid August, continued pressure down debt market, hit early interval along the rebound in the period when bond prices last week. According to the recent level of market allocation needs cooling, increase quarter financial fluctuations and fed on changes in the market interest rates approaching we believe that the bond market will maintain the oscillation in the support and safe haven yields sideways under the overall wait-and-see appropriate. The seasonal fluctuation of attention last week the central bank funds invested a total of 170 billion yuan of 7 day repurchase 70 billion yuan, 14 yuan and 275 billion day repurchase operations MLF, to achieve a total net invested capital of 86 billion 900 million. Since late August, the central bank to restart the 14 day of the open market repurchase, the central bank’s daily operation tool from the previous 7 days of operation increased to 7 days and 14 days as well as other types of directional control tools with integrated control. The steady tone of monetary policy has not changed, and the regulation of locking short and long has become more obvious. From the change of the level of capital interest rate, we can see that the interest rates of Shibor overnight and 7 days continue to rise, while the interest rate level of funds over 14 days is weak. Thus, the policy effect has been fully reflected, which is also beneficial to reduce the lever of the market. Therefore, the central bank does not rule out the possibility of regulating the market through a longer period of policy tools. However, at the end of the end of the season and the end of the year, we should pay more attention to the impact of short-term and seasonal fluctuations in capital on the market. The sharp rise in Hibor interest rates last week deserves attention. The Mid Autumn Festival, the market will be short-term funds face the impact of the Fed’s meeting on interest rates, bank MPA assessment and other important events, expected capital movements will be expanded. For the debt market, the rise of short-term interest rate will further reduce the demand for capital allocation. The level of market allocation enthusiasm last week issued a total of 251 billion 200 million yuan interest rate debt, including $95 billion 600 million of treasury bonds, 108 billion 900 million yuan, 46 billion 700 million yuan of local government bonds, policy financial bonds. This week is expected to issue 64 billion yuan of treasury bonds, 24 billion yuan of policy financial bonds, 9 billion 900 million yuan of local bonds. From the issuance of bonds last week, the enthusiasm of the primary market allocation enthusiasm continues to cool. From the previous highest about 6 times of the bid multiples to now about 3 times the bid multiples, the overall cooling range is obvious. At the same time, the overall configuration of policy bank debt is still enthusiastic, but there are some cooling, especially the demand for super long debt configuration has basically returned to the previous level. Visible, in the overall yield decline in the process, due to the gradual decline in the allocation of value, the enthusiasm of the primary market began to fall. More importantly, the central bank locks short put long policy can effectively reduce the level of leverage in the bond market before the abnormal long debt allocation gradually settled, conducive to the overall stability of the financial system, to guide capital off the virtual reality. The Fed debate

多空交织 期债难有趋势性机会 新浪基金曝光台:信披滞后虚假宣传,业绩长期低于同类产品,买基金被坑怎么办?点击【我要投诉】,新浪帮你曝光他们!    临近季末,资金利率上涨将进一步降低配置需求      8月中旬以来,期债市场持续承压回落,上周在期债价格触及前期区间上沿时止跌反弹。结合近期一级市场配置需求的降温、季末资金波动加大以及美联储议息会议临近的市场变化,我们认为,期债市场将在避险支撑和收益率横盘整理的影响下维持振荡,整体观望为宜。   关注季节性资金波动   上周央行共投放1700亿元7天期逆回购,700亿元14天期逆回购和2750亿元MLF操作,共计实现净投放869亿资金。自8月下旬央行重启14天公开市场逆回购以来,央行每日的操作工具由之前的7天操作增加至7天、14天以及其他各类定向调控工具配合的综合调控。货币政策维持稳健的基调没有变,锁短放长的调控意味更加明显。从资金利率水平的变化可以看到,Shibor隔夜、7天利率水平持续走高,而14天以上资金利率水平整体承压疲弱。可见,政策效果已然充分体现,这也有益于降低市场杠杆水平。因此,不排除后期央行通过更长期限的政策工具来调控市场的可能。   不过,在临近季末和年末的时间关口,应该更加关注短期和季节性资金波动给市场带来的影响。上周Hibor利率水平的大幅上涨值得引起警惕。中秋节后,市场资金面将受到美联储议息会议、银行MPA考核等重要事件的短期冲击,预计资金波动幅度将会相继扩大。对于期债市场来讲,短期资金利率水平的上涨将进一步降低资金配置需求。   一级市场配置热情降温   上周总计发行了2512亿元利率债,包括956亿元国债、1089亿元地方债、467亿元政策性金融债。本周预计将发行640亿元国债,240亿元政策性金融债券,99亿元地方债。从上周发行债券的认购情况来看,国债一级市场配置热情持续降温。从之前最高6倍左右的中标倍数到现在3倍左右的中标倍数,整体降温幅度明显。同时,政策银行债整体配置热情依旧,但也有部分降温,尤其是超长债的配置需求已经基本回归先前水平。   可见,在整体收益率下滑的过程中,由于配置价值逐渐降低,一级市场热情开始滑落。更为重要的是,央行锁短放长的政策导向有效降低了债券市场的杠杆水平,之前表现异常的超长债配置逐渐尘埃落定,整体利于金融体系的稳定性,利于引导资金脱虚向实。   美联储议息会议干扰市场   9月下旬,美联储议息会议提上日程。虽然市场对于9月美联储加息预期较低,但相关言论依然对市场情绪产生较大干扰。尤其是一旦有鹰派论调浮现,市场避险需求即刻反映,黄金、债券等避险资产需求也相应增加。对于美联储议息决议之下的市场变化,我们有两种假设:一是,如果美联储9月不加息,那么12月之前或者四季度的市场不确定性将增加,三季末的资金波动将平稳度过;二是,如果美联储9月加息,那么三季末的资金波动将大幅增加,不排除国内货币政策短期增强的可能。但是,这也降低了后期的不确定性,四季度的避险情绪将大幅缓解。   综上,继10年期国债收益率由之前的低点2.65%左右反弹至现在的2.79%水平,国债期货价格也已经有了一定程度的回调。但是在短期资金波动和避险情绪的共同影响下,期债市场将整体呈现振荡格局,之前的结构性抛空机会建议止盈观望。从10年期和1年期国债利差围绕65bp徘徊的情况来看,曲线陡峭的套利操作可阶段性止盈。建议关注技术关口和市场情绪的变化。   (作者单位:中信期货)   版权声明:本网所有内容,凡来源:“期货日报”的所有文字、图片和音视频资料,版权均属期货日报所有,任何媒体、网站或个人未经本网协议授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发布 发表。已经本网协议授权的媒体、网站,在下载使用时必须注明"稿件来源:期货日报",违者本网将依法追究责任。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

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Zhou Xiaochuan responded to improve the partial deposit rate: did not hear of raising the reserve requirements of some banks? Zhou Xiaochuan: not heard in February 19th, in the "2016 annual meeting of China Economic 50 forum", the first financial on the market rumors to raise some bank deposit reserve rate issue to the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan exclusive verification. Zhou Xiaochuan said, "never heard of it."". In February 19th, the media reported that China’s central bank decided to increase the reserve requirement rate for some banks, because the new loans were too fast. The adjustment includes at least part of regional banks. The latest data released by the central bank showed that in January, the overall financial data exceeded expectations, the new RMB loans increased by 2 trillion and 510 billion in the month, an increase of 1 trillion and 40 billion over the same period, in addition, the social financial caliber of new RMB loans reached 2 trillion and 540 billion, an increase of 1 trillion and 70 billion over the same period. Yesterday, the central bank announced data show that in January this year, the central bank foreign exchange reserves for the stock of 24 trillion and 200 billion yuan, down 644 billion 500 million yuan, the second largest decline in history, second only to December 2015 decline of 708 billion 200 million yuan. China Minsheng Bank chief researcher Wen Bin believes that because of the lack of liquidity now, so to maintain a low level of money market interest rates, we must maintain the stability of liquidity. At present, some short-term tools are added to the liquidity, and the cost is higher for commercial banks. So fundamentally, we need to reduce the liquidity. Enter Sina Financial shares] discussion

周小川回应提高部分存准率:没听说   提高部分银行存款准备金率? 周小川:没听说   2月19日,在“中国经济50人论坛2016年年会”上,第一财经就市场传闻拟提高部分银行存款准备金率一事向央行行长周小川独家求证。周小川表示:“没听说这事”。   2月19日,有媒体报道称,中国央行决定对部分银行提高存款准备金率,因其新增贷款发放速度过快。此次调整至少包括部分区域性银行。   央行近期公布的最新数据显示,1月整体金融数据大超预期,当月新增人民币贷款增加2.51万亿,同比多增1.04万亿,此外,社融口径新增人民币贷款达2.54万亿,同比多增1.07万亿。   昨日央行公布的数据显示,今年1月,中央银行外汇占款为存量24.2万亿元,下降6445亿元,为历史第二大降幅,仅次于2015年12月7082亿元的降幅。   中国民生银行首席研究员温彬认为,因为现在流动性缺乏,所以要保持货币市场利率一个较低的水平,就一定要保持流动性的稳定。目前补充流动性的都是一些短期工具,而且成本对于商业银行来说较高。所以从根本上来说还是需要降准来补充流动性。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

but can be used as enterprises and workers in collective wage negotiations and reasonably determine their own level of wage growth reference. Reporters preliminary statistics 武踏八荒

This year the majority of enterprises wage will tend to pay or reduce the number of cautious corporate wage will become more cautious part or reduce the salary adjustment to reduce the number of pressure "Economic Reference News" reporter preliminary statistics released in 2015 this year, around the wage guidelines in 2014 compared to more flat or down, this situation is the second consecutive year. Some institutions predict that in the environment of economic downturn, the enterprise profit margins shrink, the ability to pay down, more enterprises will adopt the way to reduce the number of pay transfer and reduce the salary coverage rate to reduce the operating pressure of the enterprise. In the context of increased employment pressure, most enterprises in 2016 tend to pay more attention. Down the overall wage guidance line to reduce the wage guidance line from the baseline, the line (also known as the warning line) and offline composition. It is based on the year the government regulation of economic development goals, to the enterprise’s annual wage growth that is not binding, but can be used as enterprises and workers in collective wage negotiations and reasonably determine their own level of wage growth reference. Reporters preliminary statistics, in 2015 announced wage guidance line compared to 2014 more flat or down. In 2015, for example, Beijing’s wage growth baseline dropped from 12% last year to 10.5%; Shanghai’s benchmark line in 2015 was 10%, down 2 percentage points from last year; Guangdong’s benchmark line in 2015 was 8.5%, down 0.5 percentage points from last year. Xinjiang, Tianjin, Shanxi, Shaanxi, the 4 provinces and municipalities baseline reduction of 3 percentage points, the largest decline. In addition to the government’s wage guidance line decline, from the institutional survey data can also be seen that changes in economic growth and employment situation has affected the salary growth. Qianchengwuyou recently released "2016 turnover and salary survey report" shows that in 2015 China’s economy continued weakness in the overall smooth tone, business investment and profitability are subject to greater impact. In most areas, the wage guidance line in 2015 is flat or down, and more enterprises tend to be conservative in salary adjustment, and the salary range will still decrease slightly in 2016. This is consistent with the explanations given by the government. Yunnan enterprises in 2015 wage growth on line 17%, baseline 10%, offline 3%, respectively, lower than in 2014, 1%, 2%, 1%. In this regard, Yunnan people club Bureau said, Yunnan Province in 2015 the overall downtown pressure on the economy, business and development pressure, the government promoting employment, steady growth pressure; at the same time, Yunnan province 2015 annual GDP, labor productivity, the consumer price index and macroeconomic regulation and control goal development were significantly lower than in 2014. In fact, from the historical data, the correlation between the economic situation and the salary trend is obvious. Towers Watson in a research report released earlier showed that after Chinese enterprise salary growth rate of the 11.6% peak appeared in 2011 began to slow down from the beginning of 2012, an increase of only single digits, 2012 to 2013 is about 9%, 8.8% in 2014. Qianchengwuyou data also showed that 201 of

今年多数企业涨工资将趋于谨慎 调薪次数或减少   今年企业涨工资将趋于谨慎 部分或减少调薪次数降低压力   《经济参考报》记者初步统计,2015年各地公布的工资指导线相比2014年多持平或下调,这一状况已是连续第二年出现。有机构预测,在经济下行的大环境下,企业利润空间缩小,支付能力下降,更多企业将采用减少调薪次数和降低调薪覆盖率的方式来减轻企业的营运压力。在就业压力增大背景下,2016年多数企业对调薪也趋于谨慎。   向下 整体工资指导线降低   企业工资指导线由基准线、上线(又称为预警线)和下线构成。它是政府根据当年经济发展调控目标,向企业发布的年度工资增长水平的建议,并不具有强制约束力,但可作为企业与职工开展工资集体协商以及企业自身合理确定工资增长水平的参考依据。   记者初步统计,2015年各地公布的工资指导线相比2014年多持平或下调。例如,北京2015年工资增长基准线由去年的12%降为10.5%;上海2015年基准线为10%,较去年下降2个百分点;广东2015年基准线为8.5%,较去年下降0.5个百分点。新疆、天津、山西、陕西这4省市基准线均下调了3个百分点,降幅最大。除了政府制定的工资指导线的下降,从机构调研数据也可以看出,经济增速和就业形势的变化已经对薪酬增长造成影响。   前程无忧近日发布的《2016离职与调薪调研报告》显示,2015年我国经济在总体平稳基调下继续呈现弱势,企业投资状况与盈利状况均受到较大影响。多数地区2015年企业工资指导线涨幅为持平或下调,更多企业在调薪方面趋于保守,预计2016年调薪幅度仍会有小幅下降。   这与政府方面给出的解释趋同。云南省2015年企业工资增长上线为17%、基准线为10%、下线为3%,分别比 2014年低1%、2%、1%。对此,云南人社厅表示,云南省2015年整体经济下行压力较大,企业经营和发展压力较大,政府促就业、稳增长压力较大;同时,云南省2015年度GDP、劳动生产率、消费价格指数等宏观经济发展调控目标均明显低于2014年。   事实上,从历史数据看,经济形势与薪酬趋势的相关性比较明显。韬睿惠悦此前发布的一份调研报告显示,中国企业的年薪酬增长率在2011年出现峰值11.6%之后,开始放缓,从2012年开始增幅仅为个位数,2012至2013年大概是9%,2014年是8.8%。前程无忧的数据也显示,2015年企业调薪平均幅度为7.6%,较2014年下降0.5个百分点。而预计2016年企业的调薪幅度依旧维持下降趋势,将降至7.3%。   分化 行业间涨薪幅度差异明显   2015年,中国经济发展步入新常态,经济增速从高速转为中高速,制造业等部分企业在转型过程中陷入低潮,而互联网、生物医药等行业则“逆风而上”发展迅速,行业间涨薪幅度分化明显。   《2016离职与调薪调研报告》显示,随着中国金融市场的蓬勃发展,人才竞争愈演愈烈,行业间频现以高薪、股权期权激励等为诱饵的“抢人大战”,推动金融行业的涨薪速度遥遥领先。在大数据和“互联网+”兴起的背景下,高科技行业再次迎来较多发展机会,员工薪酬也是水涨船高。生物医药行业的稳健发展也为员工涨薪提供了坚实的物质基础。随着中国经济向服务型经济转型,现代服务业将成为经济增长引擎,员工薪酬亦平稳增长。但与此同时,制造业受冲击尤为明显,部分企业产能过剩,开工不足,部分岗位被取消或缩减,薪酬增长放缓。   随着产业升级加剧,专业人才一直供不应求,成为企业间人才竞争的焦点,所以此类员工的调薪幅度始终处于高位,预计专业技术人员的薪酬调整幅度仍然相对较高,达到9.7%。此外,随着人口红利逐步消失,外地务工人员返乡务农、产业转移等加大了一线操作人员供给缺口,面对日益严重的“用工荒”,企业不得不提升薪资竞争力以保证用人需求,而最低工资标准的不断上调等因素,都使得操作类员工的薪资也保持了较高的涨幅。   百度文库携手中国薪酬网发布的报告显示,2015年行业薪酬增长路最高的三大行业为:高科技(16.1%)、金融(15.5%)、医药(12.1%)。而快消贸易、能源化工这两大行业则增长率较低,分别为7.9%和8.5%。   智联招聘在线数据也显示,2015年第四季度求职期薪酬水平排名前十的行业中,专业服务 咨询(财会 法律 人力资源等)行业以10634元的月薪稳居榜首,基金 证券 期货 投资业以9204元的月薪排名第二;再次是中介服务,平均月薪为8658元。   收缩 企业调薪次数和覆盖率减小   由于经济结构不断优化,吸纳就业能力最强的第三产业在国民经济中地位上升,目前主流观点对我国就业形势保持信心。但也有专家认为,未来我国可能面临经济增速和就业弹性“双速”下降的压力。究其原因,一是随着劳动生产率快速提升,我国就业弹性有长期下降的趋势;二是现代服务业发展更快,但创造就业的能力相对较弱,第三产业创造就业的能力可能不及预期;三是第一、二产业劳动力流出加剧,第三产业承接产业间劳动力转移压力增加。   在就业压力增大背景下,2016年多数企业对调薪也趋于谨慎。前程无忧公布的报告显示,2016年将进行一次调薪的企业比例较2015年小幅下降0.4个百分点,为69.9%;2016年预计调薪超过一次的企业比例将下降0.6个百分点,降至15.6%。可见,面对持续上涨的人工成本及运营成本压力,计划多次调薪的企业明显减少,大部分企业采取了全年只进行一次调薪的策略。从企业调薪覆盖率情况可以看出,2016年预计调薪覆盖率在50%以下的企业比例明显增加,而预计调薪覆盖率在50%以上的企业亦有所减少,可见,2016年企业整体调薪范围将有所收缩。   报告认为,在经济下行的大环境下,企业利润空间缩小,支付能力下降,更多企业将采用减少调薪次数,并降低调薪覆盖率的方式来减轻企业的营运压力,企业有限的调薪资源也将向关键岗位与核心人才倾斜。   中国社科院人口与劳动经济所副所长张车伟认为,当前经济增速放缓、企业用工成本上升和利润空间压缩,是企业工资指导线涨幅下调的主要原因。在当前经济下行压力较大的情况下,应大力为企业减税减负,为企业涨工资提供空间和动力。   事实上,对于企业而言,人力成本已经取代融资成本成为最大的压力来源,“五险一金”的支出负担过重且税负过高。对此,中央经济工作会议则提出了减轻企业负担的思路,并提出要开展降低实体经济企业成本行动,打出“组合拳”,包括降低制度性交易成本、企业税费负担、社会保险费、财务成本、电力价格、物流成本。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

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